Analysis — A Reality Check About the Education Labor Arms Race: Oklahoma & W. Virginia Are Not Game Changers. Neither Is Janus

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When it comes to addressing conflicts in public education, military terminology is often used. There is talk of a "war on teachers," a "war on unions," and a "war on taxpayers." While nobody actually desires a war, those involved in one certainly strive to come out as the victor.

So, what is the most effective strategy for winning a war?

Throughout history, there have been numerous pieces of advice on this matter, from the likes of Sun Tzu to Norman Schwarzkopf. Interestingly, when it comes to labor issues in education, both sides employ the same tactic: they resort to the ultimate weapon to force the enemy into an unconditional surrender.

Engaging in lengthy conflicts wears down all parties involved and provides little satisfaction, even when a victory is achieved. It is far better to swiftly and decisively end the war by deploying our most powerful tool and dictating the terms of surrender.

Throughout the years, school reformers and opponents of unions have attempted a variety of ultimate weapons, including vouchers, charter schools, and paycheck protection, among others. However, none of these strategies have succeeded in rendering teacher unions insignificant in the realms of education, labor, or fiscal policy.

Teacher unions possess their own arsenal, such as class size reduction, Proposition 98, and the Every Student Succeeds Act. Nevertheless, none of these tactics have led to teacher unions becoming the definitive force in the realms of education, labor, or fiscal policy.

The latest ultimate weapon on the reform side is Janus v. AFSCME, a case under consideration by the U.S. Supreme Court that could potentially put an end to public employee unions’ practice of charging agency fees to non-members. Commentators from both sides argue that this case could "cripple," "destroy," or "permanently weaken" teacher unions.

However, in the past month, we have witnessed statewide teacher strikes in West Virginia, Oklahoma, and Kentucky — all states where agency fees are not charged and where a majority of education employees do not even belong to a union. I am willing to bet that very few of the protesters are aware of the Janus case, and even if they were, they probably would not care much about it.

A ruling in favor of Janus will undoubtedly bring significant changes to public employee unions. Their power will indeed be altered, and potentially reduced to a great extent, but they will not be completely crippled or destroyed. It is worth noting that twenty-eight states do not allow agency fees, yet they still have powerful teacher unions. Therefore, Janus cannot be considered the ultimate weapon.

What is truly intriguing about the current situation is that labor advocates believe they have discovered the ultimate weapon: large-scale strikes.

Public employees in West Virginia went on strike and managed to secure a 5 percent raise. Oklahoma teachers walked out after the legislature approved a 16 percent pay increase. Kentucky teachers are seeking to overturn legislation that made significant changes to the pension system. Arizona teachers may be the next to go on strike. Unions view this as a mass movement that could make their dreams come true.

However, I must dampen their spirits as well.

These recent walkouts resemble the West Virginia experience in that those participating do not face a loss of pay as a consequence of going on strike. While this does not diminish the actions of the protesters, it certainly makes their decision to strike much easier. But what will happen if school districts and the state stop paying? How long will Oklahoma teachers remain on strike if they have to give up not only their regular pay, but also the unprecedented wage increase that has already been guaranteed by law?

It is one thing for the public to support strikers earning $35,000 per year. However, will this support extend to Los Angeles and San Diego, where teachers can make $80,000 to $90,000?

Unions also face internal challenges. In West Virginia, teachers continued their strike even after union leaders reached an agreement with the governor to end it. In Kentucky, there is evidence suggesting that the union is simply following the crowd rather than leading it. The same may be true in Oklahoma. If union officers cannot bring an end to a strike, why would those in power negotiate with them? This particular ultimate weapon might backfire on the unions, as teachers discover that they can effectively organize and advocate for their rights even without a union.

There is an old military saying that "the enemy gets a vote." In other words, no matter how flawless your plan may seem, as long as there is someone working against you, you will need to adjust or risk failure.

Unions will certainly adjust their tactics to counteract Janus. Districts and legislatures will do the same to counteract strikes. This is the constant back-and-forth of the education labor arms race. Peace is not on the horizon.

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